Pakistan located in the temperate region. Luckily as native to Pakistan we can enjoy a diversity of seasons, we have spring, summer, autumn, winter and monsoon. The change in seasons is normally characterized by rain, it can be oppressive or drizzling. Rain normally occurs due to the winds that are wandering over the globe and frame a system for the rain on the global scale. Let’s talk about subsequent weather patterns in Pakistan. The Winds in winter are North-East to the South-West, and the reversal, South-west to North-East, in summer. So the reversal of winds system is the reason for a change in seasons. Usually December- January period comprises of regular rainfall with temperatures dropping below 0 in most of the areas of Punjab, KPk, Baluchistan and northern areas including AJK.
But this year something anomaly happened. There is no such as rainfall observed in winter and I think there is no rigorous expectation that mollifies us. This situation is not driven by a single factor so we can say it’s a combined effect of multiple factors that contributes and worsening the situation with every passing day.
The first and foremost reason is climate change. How this climate change affect the weather patterns in Pakistan.
The most important factor that literally responsible for normal winters in Pakistan are Western disturbances; these are an extratropical storm originating in the Mediterranean region, which brings winds and Rains to southern part and heavy snow falls in northern part of Pakistan. This winter, the western disturbances are less intense because its excessive moisture gets drained before reaches Pakistan. Resulting in less rainfall and no chilling winds flows that are the sole cause of temperature drop in winters.
The second reason can be The Warmer Air Patterns that are responsible for warmer winters; As the Anticyclonic circulation over the Khiarpur and Nawabshah regions are spreading warm and dry winds resulting in raising the temperature of the region as well as surrounding areas
The third reason can be the stronger El Niño Southern Oscillation Affect (ENSO); El Niño is the climatic cycle in the pacific oceans with global change in weather patterns. The cycle begins when warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward along the equator toward the coast of South America. It is strongest in equatorial regions and affects the precipitation patterns around the globe and ultimately leading to floods or droughts.
According to Metrological Department of Pakistan, in more than 100 years between years 1871-1988, 11 of 21 were El Nino years and year 2016 is declared as hottest year among all. So the stronger ENSO effect in Pakistan causing long spells of no rain and warmer climate, resulting in warmer winters.
To some extent reduced forest cover also contributes to climate change as they are temperature stabilizers and carbon sequesters.
Thus changes in rainfall patterns directly affect water, agriculture and disaster management sectors (flood, drought etc.) The wintertime rainfall contributes to about 30% of the total annual rainfall of Pakistan with some areas in west and southwest of country entirely depending on winter rain. It plays a pivotal role towards agriculture, water reservoir hydroelectric power generation and ecosystems of the country. In agriculture, these climatic changes play devastating role as higher temperature and low precipitation rates leading to worst crop yield. As there is less water available in local drains that cannot fulfill the needs of crop lands. So farmers are praying for the rain…..so we can say No Blue No green…..so try to preserve your natural resources because the upcoming centuries may bring more complexities and challenges that we won’t cater easily! So think about it and do care J