Relationship between climate & livestock

Climate change due to greenhouse gases emitted by livestock new research finds that livestock emissions are on the raise and beef, cattle are responsible for far more greenhouse gas emissions than other types of animals.
Co2 is the most prevalent gas when it comes to climate change, its release by vehicles, industries in abundant form and comprises the greatest portion of a greenhouse gas total.
The Methane and Nitrous Oxide are also greenhouse gases and count for approximately 28% a global warming activity. Methane and nitrous released in part by livestock animal release methane as result of microorganisms that are involved in their digestive processes and Nitrous Oxide from decomposing. The newer these two gases are responsible for a quarter of these Non Carbon dioxide gas emission and 9% of total greenhouse gas emission overall.
The researcher team including Dario Caro and Connie estimated the greenhouse gas emissions related livestock and most of the countries over a nearly half a century upon that livestock emission increased by 51% over this period. The developing world is getting better at reducing greenhouse emission caused by each animal by this improvement is not keeping up with the increasing demand.
As result greenhouse gas emission from livestock keeps going up and up in much of the developing world. This is expected to increase further going forward as demand for meat, dairy products and eggs as predicted to double in 2050 -by some scientists.
The impacts of climate change on the livestock industry
We should expect climate change to cause long-term changes in the environment, which in turn affect feed crop production and the production of farm animals.
An important task facing feed crop breeders is to create C3 feed crop varieties that as a result of the selective breeding efforts become more drought tolerant besides maintaining their average yields and nutrient contents. It will be our task as nutritionists to use these improved feed crop varieties in a highly focused and professional manner when formulating diets.
This also means that the different disciplines can only provide an adequate response to the challenges of climate change in cooperation. Therefore, climate researchers, meteorologists, plant breeders, crop producers, animal nutritionists, biologists, geneticists, livestock producers, animal housing technicians, nutrition biologists, doctors, etc. should all work together in the frames of a carefully structured and coordinated project to achieve this objective.
The livestock industry is likely to be impacted greatly by the effects of climate change. Some climate forecasters predict that NSW (New South Wales Forecasts) will experience increasing average temperatures and humidity in the future, and more hot spells. A ‘hot spell’ means three or more consecutive days where temperatures are above 40°C.
Scientists use a kind of scale, called the temperature-humidity index (THI), to measure heat stress on cattle, and this can also measure how productive the cattle are. When cattle are under heat stress, farmers can expect their stock to have:
Some Technical Suggestion
• reduced grazing time (because animals might be seeking shade);
• reduced feed intake;
• increase in body temperature;
• increased sweating and panting;
• Weight loss.
In dairy cows, heat stress reduces the amount of milk produced, reduces milk fat and protein content, and decreases reproduction rates.
High-producing dairy cows are the most susceptible to increases in the THI. Heat stress days where THI > 80 lead to a substantial effect on reproduction of dairy cows, particularly of the Holstein-Friesian breed.
A change in average temperatures over the hot dry period and a change in the number of ‘extreme’ days2 will both likely lead to changes in dairy production.

Beef cattle in feedlots subject to heat stress can experience reduced health and a reduction in growth, influencing the amount of beef product sent to market.
Other intensive livestock animals such as chickens etc. are also susceptible to heat stress. Some responses include:
• a reduced feed intake
• reduced laying performance (chickens)
• reduced fertility levels
• decreased activity
• in the worst cases, increased mortality.

Effect of Climate Change on Livelihood in Pakistan

A change of climate that is directly or indirectly related to human activity that modifies the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate changeability over comparable time period. The most current scientific evaluation approximates that the global mean surface temperature on Earth will increase by 1 to 3.5°C (about 2 to 6°F) with every passing year, with an associated rise in sea level of 15 to 95 cm (about 6 to 37 inches). There is growing global consensus that climate change is humankind’s greatest threat in modern times and is likely to have profound consequences for socio-economic sectors such as health, food production, energy consumption and security and natural resource management. The harmful impacts of this global warming effect are already manifesting themselves around the world in the form of extreme weather events like storms, tornadoes, floods and droughts, all of which have been mounting in frequency and intensity.

Pakistan contributes very little to the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, but remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change by the following ways:
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding will affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows over time as glaciers retreat. Freshwater availability is also projected to reduce which will lead to biodiversity loss and lessen availability of freshwater for the population. Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some cases, the rivers. Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan which in turn will affect livelihoods and food production. Merging the reduced yields with the current rapid population growth and urbanization in the country, the risk of hunger and food security will remain high. Prevalent morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and droughts are projected to rise. Increases in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate the abundance of cholera.

The impact of climate change will also intensify the existing social inequalities of resource use and intensify social factors leading to instability, conflicts, displacement of people and changes in migration patterns. People in Pakistan who live in poverty are easy target and are hardest hit by climate change. This is because the poor are more dependent on natural resources and have less of an ability to adapt to a changing climate.

Comprehensive Measures to Cope Climate Change
• Growing contact to high quality information about the impacts of climate change
• Improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and information systems to improve disaster management practices.
• Practicing liveliness efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses
• Minimizing the susceptibility to livelihoods to climate change through infra-structural changes
• Promoting good governance and accountable policy by integrating risk management and adaptation
• Developing innovative and ground-breaking farm production practices, including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques
• Improving forest management and biodiversity conservation
• Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation
• Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sector

Climate change and their effect on agriculture

What’s climate change?
A change of climate that’s directly or indirectly linked to individual activity that alters the composition of the global ambiance and which is furthermore to natural environment variability over comparable schedules.

What changes will arise in the temperature?
The newest scientific evaluation by the Intergovernmental Panel on Environment Modification (IPCC) estimates that the global averaged surface temperatures on Earth increase by 1 to 3.5?C (about 2 to 6?F) by the entire year 2100, with an associated climb in sea degree of 15 to 95 cm (about 6 to 37 in .)

A little example about climate change:
What would you select if you received the decision between a 30 carat precious stone and cylinder of atmosphere that may add next ten minutes to your life on the planet? It isn’t a million dollar concern for the reason that answer is simple.
Why is it that people presently don’t believe that the air will probably be worth more than all of the diamonds on the planet? It’s a distortion of the marketplace mechanism. Free market market values the rarest of the solutions and not the most effective. Many a times before we’ve relied on prices mechanisms to adapt demand to available source. Sometimes cheaper alternatives were created as a result of formidable costs. In every such conditions mankind survived because that they had alternatives and their survival didn’t rely upon either of them.
Imagine if their survival did rely upon among such commodities and there is no alternative? That is a predicament we foresee whenever we disregard the most valued natural information that humans survive on (air, drinking water, soil). These assets are depleting quickly and way more due to the consequences of Climate Change.

What are the consequences and impacts of environment change?
There keeps growing global consensus that environment change is humankind’s ideal threat today and will probably have profound outcomes for socio-economic sectors such as for example health, food production, strength consumption and protection and natural resource control.
The harmful impacts of the global warming effect already are manifesting themselves around the globe in the sort of extreme weather incidents like storms, tornadoes, droughts and floods, all of which have already been mounting in rate of recurrence and intensity. As a result, today suffers around 400-500 natural disasters typically in a year the world, up from 125 in the 1980s (Disaster Risk Reduction: Global Review 2007).
In line with the Fourth IPCC Assessment Statement, the data of predicted impacts of weather change is slowly and gradually unfolding. Crop yield growth rates are declining generally in most elements of the world, because of rising temperatures partially, while increases in prevalence of climate-induced diseases are also recorded. There is also proof accelerating recession of all glaciers on Earth, rainfall adjustments and variability in marine ecosystems. Another serious threat due to climate change is to freshwater availability which is projected to decline especially in large river basins and adversely affect greater than a billion persons by the 2050s
Climate change can be more likely to have wide-ranging and typically adverse impacts on individual health. The projected upsurge in the duration and frequency of heat waves is likely to increase mortality rates because of this of heat stress, especially in areas where persons aren’t equipped to handle warmer temperatures. To a smaller extent, increases in winter months temperatures in substantial latitudes could cause decreases in mortality costs. Climate change can be expected to cause rises in the potential transmitting of vector borne ailments; incorporating malaria, dengue, and yellow fever, extending the number of organisms such as for example bugs that carry these ailments in to the temperate zone, including elements of america, Europe, and Asia.

The observed ramifications of global warming up to now are:
1. Upsurge in the mean global ocean level (1-2mm annually during the last century);
2. World-wide retreat of glaciers;
3. Reduction in snow thawing and go over of permafrost;
4. Shifts of pet and plant ranges;
5. Previous flowering of plants;
6. Birds breeding months and emergence of bugs;
7. Increased happenings of coral bleaching.
What does indeed adaptation to climate modification mean?

Adaptation identifies actions designed to safeguard, people, communities, businesses and a national region against the vulnerabilities and ramifications of anticipated or actual environment change. Adaptation aims to permit vulnerable groups to modify and live with the changes in the surroundings and economy which will be caused because of climate change.
What does mitigating weather change mean?
Mitigation means taking activities to tackle the sources of climate change. Basically, this means taking measures to lessen the emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) in to the ambiance and halting the global warming tendency.

How is Pakistan afflicted by climate change?
Pakistan contributes hardly any to the entire Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, but remains severely influenced by the unwanted effects of climate switch by the next ways:
1. Glacier melt in the Himalayas can be projected to improve flooding will affect normal water resources next two to three years. This will be accompanied by decreased river flows as time passes as glaciers recede.
2. Freshwater availability can be projected to decrease that may result in biodiversity reduction and reduce option of freshwater for the populace.
3. Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Ocean in the southern of Pakistan will become at greatest risk because of increased flooding from the ocean and perhaps, the rivers.
4. Being truly a agriculture economy predominantly, climate transformation is estimated to diminish crop yields in Pakistan which will affect meals and livelihoods production. Combining the decreased yields with the existing rapid population growth and urbanization in the national country, the chance of food and food cravings security will stay high.
5. Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise primarily. Increases in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate the abundance of cholera.
6. The affect of climate change may also aggravate the prevailing social inequalities of source use and intensify interpersonal factors resulting in instability, conflicts, displacement of men and women and changes in migration patterns

Why can’t ecosystems merely adapt?
Climate change isn’t a new impact on the biosphere, why can’t ecosystems simply just adapt without significant results on the form or efficiency? There are three fundamental reasons.
First, the fee of global climate modification is projected to become more rapid than any to have happened within the last 10,000 years.
Second, human beings have altered the composition of several of the world’s ecosystems. They have decrease forests, plowed soils, employed rangelands to graze their domesticated pets or animals, introduced non-native species to numerous areas and intensively fished lakes, oceans and rivers. These relatively changes in the structure of the world’s ecosystems have made them less resilient to automatically adjust to climate change.
Third, pollution, along with other indirect effects of the use of natural resources, has increased since the beginning of the professional revolution also

Climate transformation and developing countries:
Developing countries will be the least in charge of climate transformation: The world’s least produced countries contribute only ten percent of twelve-monthly global skin tightening and emissions. On the other hand, the geographical site and socio-economical fragility of almost all of the developing causes them more susceptible to environmentally friendly, social and financial effects of climate change and having less resources and capacities to adjust to the alterations will worsen the problem.
Moreover, people who stay in poverty around the global world will be hardest hit by climate change. This is as the poor are more reliant on natural resources and also have less of an capability to adjust to a changing climate.

What measures could be taken up to cope with climate switch?
1. Increasing access to top quality info on the impacts of weather change
2. Improving technical responses by setting set up early warning data and systems systems to improve disaster preparedness
3. Practicing energy effectiveness through changes in specific lifestyles and businesses
4. Minimizing the vulnerability to livelihoods to environment switch through infra-structural changes
5. Promoting great governance and responsible coverage by integrating risk adaptation and management
6. Developing ground breaking and new farm production practices, including new crop types and irrigation techniques
7. Improving forest operations and biodiversity conservation
8. Empowering communities and local stakeholders in order that they participate actively in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation
9. Mainstreaming climate become development preparation at all scales, sectors and levels
10. Climate switch and agriculture happen to be interrelated processes, both of which happen on a worldwide scale. Climate change influences agriculture in a number of ways, including through alterations in average temperature ranges, rainfall, and weather extremes (e.g., warmth waves); changes in conditions and pests; alterations in atmospheric carbon ground-level and dioxide ozone concentrations; changes in the nutritional quality of some foods; and changes in ocean level.
11. Climate change has already been affecting agriculture, with results unevenly distributed around the world. Future climate change will negatively affect crop production in lo latitude countries likely, while effects in northern latitudes could be positive or negative. Climate change will improve the risk of food insecurity for some vulnerable groups probably, like the poor.
12. Agriculture plays a part in climate change by (1) anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and (2) by the change of non-agricultural property (e.g., forests) into agricultural territory. Agriculture, forestry and land-use change contributed round 20 to 25% to global twelve-monthly emissions this year 2010.
13. There will be ranges of policies that may reduce the threat of negative climate modification impacts on agriculture, and lessen GHG emissions from the agriculture sector.
Climate change and agriculture in Pakistan:
Agriculture is extremely susceptible to climate transformation globally and in Pakistan, which is the among the most detrimental hit countries of environment change, agriculture is affected, said climate change professionals and nature conservationists on Saturday.
Addressing a meeting on climate change structured by the Habib University, professionals said water availability, food security and human healthcare were most likely to be damaged by climate change negatively, i.e. erratic weather conditions patterns, changing rainfall tendencies and extreme weather situations including floods which were plaguing the countryside for recent years.
Experts explained that beside Pakistan as well, other developing countries, many of them in the Asia Pacific location, are also more likely to confront the brunt of environmentally friendly, social and economical impacts of climate change. There are assertions that greenhouse gas emissions were a significant element in climate change; on the other hand, developing countries contribute simply ten percent of the gross annual global skin tightening and emissions.
Quoting recent record from the World Lender, climate change authorities warned Pakistan of the living of five major dangers related to climate switch. Those include surge in ocean level, glacial retreats, floods, higher conditions and higher rate of recurrence of droughts.
These raise major difficulties for current and long term decision-making and also have multifaceted effect on the economy, agriculture, water solutions and urban management.
Experts estimate the United States incurs monetary losses of $5.2 billion annually therefore of environmental degradation.
The audio speakers added that Pakistan acquired witnessed devastating floods and droughts. The seesaw weather patterns certainly are a new phenomenon however the term ‘climate change’ was neither more popular nor completely understood in the United States. Actually, global warming and environment change is still regarded as a global issue and plan manufacturers and stakeholders in Pakistan have already been struggling to root it in the indigenous context. This hampers discussions and consensus setting up about them and exacerbates the nagging issue.
Dr Bruce A McCarl, Regents Professor, Section of Agricultural Economics, Texas A good University, while providing the presentation, “Climate Switch and Decision Building: An Economic and Agricultural Point of view” said because of this of climate transformation, there have been increases in rainfall strength and dry intervals between incidents and Pakistan suffered a lot more than anywhere in the world. “As a result of impacts of the weather change, crop yield will certainly reduce drastically by 2030 in lots of parts of the world,” he said.
He added that the amount of the warmest years was raising, which accelerated evaporation from the sea, increasing the gross annual rainfall. “But Pakistan features seen a decline recently,” he said.
“All 12 years since 2000 will be among the 14 warmest years since 1879 and only 1 year during 20th hundred years-1998-was warmer than 2012,” he said, adding that the entire calendar year 2012 was the 36th consecutive season with global temperature ranges above the 20th century common.

Dr Muhammad MohsinIqbal, Mind of Agriculture Section at Global Modification Impact Studies Centre, Islamabad Pakistan in his address, “Climate Switch: Vulnerability of Pakistan and Impacts on Agriculture,” stated the growing season amount of wheat and rice in Pakistan will end up being reduced therefore of climate switch with unwanted effects on yield. He explained the reduction was ideal in the semi-arid areas and rice appeared to be more delicate to climate changes than wheat, as evidenced by increased yield reduced amount of rice beneath the same scenarios.
Quoting info, he said Pakistan possessed constantly witnessed history’s most detrimental disasters since 2001. “Both irrigated and rain-fed agriculture had been susceptible to climate extreme occasions. “In 1949-50, the agriculture sector was contributing 53 percent in the country’s GDP, which dropped to 31 percent during 1980-81, and during 2012-13 it possesses dropped to simply 21 drastically.4 percent.”

Climate Change and Potohar Region of Pakistan

“If you disturb the nature, the nature will destroy you”
Climate is not an intellectual concept or moral imperative but rather it is a necessity to maintain ecosystems in zone of life. So, why climate change is a burning issue right now? Because of this we are at the verge of extinction. As in 21st century, industrial civilization has decreased the area for agriculture on which we all depend for food which is under the threat from climate change. There is no doubt that systems worldwide will have to adapt, but while consumers may barely notice in developed countries, millions of people in developing countries face a very real and direct threat to their food security and livelihoods. Even without climate change, many agricultural systems in developing countries are nearing crisis point. Feeding a rapidly rising global population is taking a heavy toll on farmlands, rangelands, fisheries and forests. Water is becoming scarce in many regions. Climate change could be the additional stress that pushes systems over the edge.
Now if look at the map of Pakistan, Potohar region is situated at the border of indo-gengetic plain. Agriculture is main sector of region as 47% of total area is under cultivation. Its contribution in agriculture is depleting due to climate change. Major crops are wheat, maize, ground nut, gram, lentils and oil seed crops.
Most of the farmers in potohar plateau are not progressive. Due to high production cost and losses by climate change (i.e. either due to out-seasonal rainfall or extreme weather conditions) they are no longer interested in farming business. In this case scenario Government should provide basic facilities and subsidy to promote agriculture in potohar.
Farmers in the Potohar region are worried after the recent unexpected rains and hailstorms, coupled with gusty winds, damaged their crops. The crop in the Potohar region mainly relies on rains. However it has been seen that unexpected spell of rain has damaged the grains of the crop which had already grown and was being harvested by the farmers.
There are many departments in Pakistan which are working to improve this alarming situation. Among them Punjab Metrological Department, National Disaster Management, Forest department and National Agriculture Research Center are prominent. Intense Research is also going on in universities on this crucial issue. But no milestone has yet achieved.
The National Disaster Management Authority has been assigned the task of coordinating the disaster risk management at the national level, implementing disaster risk management strategies, mapping the hazards, developing guidelines and ensuring the establishment of disaster management. Despite establishment of this organization assigned with apparently multifarious tasks, disasters in Pakistan are hardly managed effectively. Its preparedness and response during recent floods were found inadequate.
As we all know that the area of Potohar under forests is about 4,02000 hectors. Climate change is likely to have multi-faceted adverse effects on the ecosystem as a whole, particularly on the already vulnerable forestry sector in Potohar. The most likely impacts of climate change will be decreased productivity, changes in species composition, reduced forest area, unfavorable conditions for biodiversity, higher flood risks. Adaptation in the forestry sector entails the need to restore and enhance Pakistan’s forests under sustainable forest management, with particular focus on how these are affected by climate change. This will not only benefit state forests but forest dependent communities and society as a whole.
Punjab Metrological Department should create awareness among the farmers and local communities of Potohar region. Climate change is likely to increase climate-related natural disasters with the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, cyclones, landslides triggered by heavy rains and urban flooding due to congestion of storm drainage. Climate change projections are scenario based, and hence have some degree of uncertainty. Nonetheless, there are strong indications that in Pakistan, particularly in Potohar, climate change is intensifying the above-mentioned hazards. Pakistan is already experiencing climate change impacts which are too visible to ignore. Most disasters or hazards that lead to destruction cannot be prevented; their impact however, can be minimized by adaptation and preparedness measures.
There is no awareness among common people about this matter. An ordinary man doesn’t even know how much damage he causes to the natural environment. This damage causes change in entropy which in turn effects plants, insects and animals especially humans.

To approach the issue appropriately, we must take into account local communities’ understanding of climate change, since they perceive climate as having a strong spiritual, emotional, and physical dimension. It is therefore assumed that these communities have an inborn, adaptive knowledge from which to draw and survive in high-stress ecological and socio-economic conditions. Thus, the human response is critical to understanding and estimating the effects of climate change on production and food supply for ease of adaptation. Accounting for these adaptations and adjustments is necessary in order to estimate climate change mitigations and responses.
“ We have the knowledge right now to make vast improvements to agricultural systems – improvements that can compensate for the negative impacts of climate change “

Syed Ali Asghar Shah
M.Sc(Hons) Agric. Extension