Rain…Rain Everywhere

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“Rain makes everything better” updating her Facebook status while enjoying the rain in her comfortable bed. “Well, not everything. You must watch the news after the heavy rainfall” her friends replied in a comment.

Meteorology department already issued warnings about the monsoon season and modifications of weather phenomena before the time. “Three to four spells of monsoon rainfall with thunderstorm and isolated heavy falls are predicted in Punjab, KP, AJK and GB, while, two spells are expected in southern parts (Southeast Sindh and Eastern Baluchistan) of the county during the current month” that’s the report outlook prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics.

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But despite the cautionary statements, citizens suffered and normal life is disrupting by an urban flood, inundation, massive traffic jams and frequent power cuts especially in low lying areas. Heavy downpour also caused problems in different hospitals.

The system of electric supply company failed, resulting in electricity failure in various areas due to tripping of dozens of electric supply company feeders. Numerous areas are without power for many hours, which also interrupted the supply of clean water. Even till late night, many parts of the city are without electricity as the supply of electricity is badly hampered due to rain.

A massive gridlock confirmed after a heavy monsoon rain, inundating major thoroughfares and low-lying areas due to poor drainage system. Poor drainage system and ongoing construction work for various projects in various cities are cited as the reasons behind the worst traffic jam, as hundreds of commuters can be seen stranded with their vehicles stuck in gridlock on waterlogged roads.

Thus, rainfall is not making better everything for everyone. As people, especially of low-lying areas, are facing issues from drinking water to proper water drainage. Not just only the long traffic jams and storm water on roads are making life rough for many but also power cutouts at home and at offices complete the circle of inimical life. Hence, is capable of turning a blessing into an obscenity.

Climate Change

Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere and its short-term variation in minutes to weeks. Climate is the weather of a place averaged over a period of time, often 30 years. Climate information includes the statistical weather information that tells us about the normal weather, as well as the range of weather extremes for a location.

Climate change is a change in the average pattern of weather over a long period of time.The gaseous composition of earth’s atmosphere is undergoing a significant change, largely through increased emissions from energy, industry and agriculture sectors; widespread deforestation as well as fast changes in land use and land management practices. These anthropogenic activities are resulting in an increased emission of radiatively active gases, viz. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), popularly known as the ‘greenhouse gases’ (GHGs) (Table 1). These GHGs trap the outgoing infrared radiations from the earth’s surface and thus raise the temperature of the atmosphere.

The global mean annual temperature at the end of the 20th century, as a result of GHG accumulation in the atmosphere, has increased by 0.4–0.7 ºC above that recorded at the end of the 19th century. The past 50 years have shown an increasing trend in temperature @ 0.13 °C/decade, while the rise in temperature during the past one and half decades has been much higher.

 

Table 1. Abundance and lifetime of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

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Parameters                                          CO2               CH4             N2O      Chlorofluorocarbons

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Average concentration 100 years      290,000         900              270                         0

ago (ppbV)

Current concentration                     380,000          1,774            319                        3-5

(ppbV) (2007)

Projected concentration in the          400,000-        2,800-          400-500                 3-6

year 2030 (ppbV)                              500,000         3,000

Atmospheric lifetime (year)              5-200             9-15             114                         75

Global warming potential                 1                    25                298                  4750-10900

Source: IPCC (2007)

 

The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change has projected the temperature increase to be between 1.1 °C and 6.4 °C by the end of the 21st Century (IPCC, 2007). The global warming is expected to lead to other regional and global changes in the climate-related parameters such as rainfall, soil moisture, and sea level. Snow cover is also reported to be gradually decreasing.

Therefore, concerted efforts are required for mitigation and adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of agriculture to the adverse impacts of climate change and making it more resilient. The adaptive capacity of poor farmers is limited because of subsistence agriculture and low level of formal education. Therefore, simple, economically viable and culturally acceptable adaptation strategies have to be developed and implemented. Furthermore, the transfer of knowledge as well as access to social, economic, institutional, and technical resources need to be provided and integrated within the existing resources of farmers.

  1. Emission of Greenhouse Gases

The three major GHGs are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, besides chlorofluorocarbons. A brief description of their sources and sinks is given below.

Carbon Dioxide

The main sources of carbon dioxide emission are decay of organic matter, forest fires, eruption of volcanoes, burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and land-use changes. Agriculture is also a contributor to CO2 emission but is not considered a major source of this important GHG. Within agriculture, soil is the main contributor with factors such as soil texture, temperature, moisture, pH, and available C and N, influencing CO2 emission from soil. Emission of CO2 is more from a tilled soil than from an undisturbed soil (no till). Temperature has a marked effect on CO2 evolution from soil by influencing root and soil respiration. It may be mentioned that plants, oceans and atmospheric reactions are the major sinks of carbon dioxide.

Methane

Methane is about 25-times more effective as a heat-trapping gas than CO2. The main sources of methane are: wetlands, organic decay, termites, natural gas and oil extraction, biomass burning, rice cultivation, cattle and refuse landfills. The primary sources of methane from agriculture include animal digestive processes, rice cultivation and manure storage and handling. The removal in the Stratosphere and soil are the main sinks of methane.

In ruminant animals, methane is produced as a by-product of the digestion of feed in the rumen under anaerobic condition. Methane emission is related to the composition of animal diet (grass, legume, grain and concentrates) and the proportion of different feeds (e.g., soluble residue, hemicellulose and cellulose content). Mitigation of methane emitted from livestock is approached most effectively by strategies that reduce feed input per unit of product output. Nutritional, genetic and management strategies to improve feed efficiency increase the rate of product (milk, meat) output per animal. Because most CH4 is produced in the rumen by fermentation, practices that speed the passage of feed from the rumen can also reduce methane formation.

Methane is also formed in soil through the metabolic activities of a small but highly specific bacterial group called ‘methanogens’. Their activity increases in the submerged, anaerobic conditions developed in the wetland rice fields, which limit the transport of oxygen into the soil, and the microbial activities render the water-saturated soil practically devoid of oxygen. The upland, aerobic soil does not produce methane. Water management, therefore, plays a major role in methane emission from soil. Altering water management practices, particularly mid-season aeration by short-term drainage as well as alternate wetting and drying can greatly reduce methane emission from rice cultivation. Improving organic matter management by promoting aerobic degradation through composting or incorporating into soil during off-season drain-period is another promising technique.

Nitrous Oxide

As a greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide is 298-times more effective than CO2. Forests, grasslands, oceans, soils, nitrogenous fertilizers, and burning of biomass and fossil fuels are the major sources of nitrous oxide, while it is removed by oxidation in the Stratosphere. Soil contributes to the largest amount of nitrous oxide emission. The major sources are soil cultivation, fertilizer and manure application, and burning of organic material and fossil fuels. From an agricultural perspective, nitrous oxide emission from soil represents a loss of soil nitrogen, reducing the nitrogen-use efficiency.

Appropriate crop management practices, which lead to increased N-use efficiency, hold the key to reduce nitrous oxide emission. Site-specific nutrient management, fertilizer placement and proper type of fertilizer supply nutrients in a better accordance with plant demands, thereby reduce nitrous oxide emission.

 

Climate Change And Its Vulnerability

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Climate change in other words demolishing economy

Property and infrastructure Damage.

Sea-level rise, rivers into floods, droughts, wildfires, and extreme storms require extensive repair of essential infrastructure such as homes, roads, bridges, railroad tracks, airport runways, power lines, dams, levees, and seawalls.

Productivity Loss

Disruptions in daily life related to climate change can mean lost work and school days and harm trade, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, energy production, and tourism. Severe rainfall events and snowstorms can delay planting and harvesting, cause power outages, snarl traffic, delay air travel, and otherwise make it difficult for people to go about their daily business. Climate-related health risks also reduce productivity, such as when extreme heat curtails construction, or when more potent allergies and more air pollution lead to lost work and school days.

 Mass migration and security threats

Global warming is likely to increase the number of “climate refugees”—people who are forced to leave their homes because of drought, flooding, or other climate-related disasters. Mass movements of people and social disruption may lead to civil unrest, and might even spur military intervention and other unintended consequences.

Coping costs

Societies may find ways to prepare for and cope with some climate impacts—provided that we do not let our carbon emissions continue unabated. However, even a partial accounting of these measures suggests that coping is likely to be more costly steps to reduce carbon emissions thereby reducing associated climate impacts.

For example, farmers might need to irrigate previously rain-fed areas, cool vulnerable livestock, and manage new or more numerous pests. Local and state governments that taker early steps to ensure that houses are more energy efficient, and build early warning systems for heat waves and disasters and add emergency responders are more likely to cope with extreme events. Governments may also have to build seawalls, contain sewer overflows, and strengthen bridges, subways, and other critical components of the transportation system.

Rebuilding after disasters strike is likely to prove even more costly than these preventive measures, studies show. And these costs do not include those stemming from lives lost and other irreversible consequences of allowing heat-trapping gases to accumulate unchecked in our atmosphere.

Possible Solutions

  • Boosting energy efficiency
  • Greening Transportation
  • Revving up renewable
  • Phasing out fossil fuel electricity
  • Managing forests and agriculture
  • Exploring nuclear
  • Developing and deploying new low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies
  • Ensuring sustainable development
  • Adapting to changes already underway

 

موسمیاتی تبدیلی

موسمیاتی تبدیلی دنیا کے بڑے مسئلوں میں سب سے اھم ھے جو حالیہ برسوں میں ابھر کر سامنے آیا ھے اس کا سب سے بڑا اثر گلوبل وارمنگ کی صورت میں دنیا کو جھیلنا پڑا ھے ایک عالمی رپورٹ کے مطابق گزشتہ ایک صدی کے دوران دنیا کے درجہ حرارت میے اعشاریہ تین فیصد اضافہ ھواھے   کاربن ڈائ آکسائیڈ کی مقدار میں ذیادتی کسی بڑے خطرے سے کم نھیں عالمی درجہ حرارت کی وجہ سے گلیئشرز پگھل رھے ھیں جس سے پانی کی شدید کمی واقع ھو رھی ھے عالمی تجزیہ نگاروں کے مطابق دنیا کی تیسری عالمی جنگ پانی پر ھوگی اس سے پہلے کہ طبل جنگ بج اٹھے ھمیں اس مسئلے پر قابو پانا ھوگا ۔

اب آتے ھیں اپنے پیارے ملک پاکستان کی طرف

قدرت نے ھمارے ملک کو ھر ان وسائل سے مالامال کر رکھا ھے جن کے لیے دنیا ترستی ھے ھمارے پاس چار بھترین موسم  گرمی سردی بھار اور خزاں موجود ھیں ھیں ھماری سرحد کے ایک طرف سمندر بھتا ھے اور ایک حصہ فلک شگاف پہاڑی سلسلوں  جن میں تربت مارگلہ  راکا پوشی اور قراقرم  شامل ھیں ۔ ھمارے پاس تین بھترین صحرا تھر تھل اور چولستان بھی ھیں ھمارے پاس طویل ترین برف کےمیدان ھیں  مگر ان سب کے باوجود ھر سال اس ملک میں قدرتی آفات آتی ھیں سرکاری ٹی وی کی اک رپورٹ کے مطابق پاکستان ان ۱۰ ممالک کی فھرست میں شامل ھے جو قدرتی آفات کے دھانے پر کھڑے ھیں پاکستان میں سیلاب اور زلزلے عام ھو رھے ھیں اس ملک کا پچھتر فیصد حصہ پانی پر مشتمل ھے جس میں صرف تیں فیصد پانی تازہ اور پینے کے قابل ھے یہی تین فیصد خطرناک حد تک کم ھو رھا ھے ۲۰۱۴ سے تھرپارکر اور چولستان کے لوگ خشک سالی میں مبتلا ھیں گلوبنگ وارمنگ کی وجہ ھر سال شدید گرمی اور سردی کا سامنا کرنا پڑ رہا ھے سائنسدانوں کے مطابق پاکستان میں موسمیاتی تبدیلیوں کا عمل ان کی توقع سے کھیں زیادہ تیز ھوگیا ھے آبی وسائل میں کمی اور ڈیمز کا نہ ھونا ھماری نا اہلی کا ثبوت ھے سالہا سال اس ملک میں سیلاب غریب لوگوں کے گھر جانور اور فصلیں بھا کر لے جاتا اور ھم بربادی کا تماشا دیکھتے رہ جاتے ھیں ھمارے سیاستدانوں کو سیاست چمکانے کا موقع ملُ جاتا ھے 

ھمارا المیہ یہ ھے کہ ھمیں ھمیشہ پانی سر سے گزر جانے کے بعد ھوش آتی ھے ۔ ھم تب تک خواب غفلت میں سوئے رھتے ھیں جب تک کوئ بڑا نقصان نہ اٹھا لیں ۔ ھمیں لاشیں اٹھانے کہ بعد سمجھ آتی ھے کہ یہ مسئلہ تو ھمارا تھا ۔ اس ملک میں دیہی آبادی کے اسی فیصد لوگ اور شہری آبادی کے پچاس فیصد لوگ پینے کے صاف پانی سے محروم ھیں اور ھمیں اب جا کر ھوش آرھی ھے 

اس مسئلے کے حل کے لیے گورنمنٹ آف پاکستان نے climate change policy بنائ ھے جسے بھت سی عوام نے پڑھا تک نھیں اور وہ اس پالیسی سے بلکل لاعلم ھیں عوام کو اس مسئلے کی طرف راغب کرنا ھوگا لوگوں میں شعور اور آگاھی پھیلائ جائے قدرتی وسائل کا کم سے کم ضیاع جنگلات کے کٹاؤ میں کمی اور پانی کے بے جا استعمال سے لوگوں کو روکا جائے 

زراعت کا طالب علم ھونے کے ناطے میں اس بات سے متفق اور گورنمنٹ آف پاکستان سے اپیل کرتا ھوں اپنی پالیسی کو نصاب میں شامل کریں اس پر ورکشاپس اور آگاھی مھم چلائی جائیں تاکہ کسان اپنی فصلوں اور باقی انسان  اپنی جانوں کو بچا سکیں